DBKP Sunday Funnies: June 13, 2010

Originally posted at DBKP:
* Hope N Change: Details Details
* Day by Day: Foreign Exchange



Angie:
Dressed to Kill





Hope N Change:
Details Details






Day by Day:
Foreign Exchange






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DBKP Saturday Funnies

Originally posted at DBKP:
* ">Useful Idiots: Oil and Water
* Angie: Immigration Way Out of Line
* Hope N Change: Dung Beatle
* Day by Day: Pack Behavior




































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Democrat Governors 2010 Strategy: GOP, Tea Party is Scaring Us!

First published at DBKP: 2010 Democrat Governors Strategy: The GOP is Scaring Us, Make Them Stop



Nathan Daschle is sending out emails, sounding the alarm for DemocratGovernors.org. . What's got Nathan so spooked? A 82-second video called "Remember November." Let's take a look at Nate's trembling missive.

"Hey Nathan! Booo! Got ya...."


AS ALWAYS, FEAR IS AN OPTION



FEAR STALKS THE DEMOCRAT GOVERNORS OF AMERICA

If readers smell something funny, it might just be the scent of pure terror.

That's according to Nathan Daschle, from the Democratic Governors.org. According to Nate's email, he's quaking with fear-or is it rage? Hard to remember which week this is.

So let's go to the email.



from: Nathan Daschle, DemocraticGovernors.org
date: Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 12:23 PM
subject: [VIDEO] Coming This Fall

Dear Xxxxxx,

You heard from me recently about the new fear-centric marketing campaign by the Republican Governors Association. It's called 'Remember November,' and is based on the story of Guy Fawkes, the 17th-century English terrorist who tried to blow up Parliament.

Well, the DGA is responding to these sick tactics. But instead of using images of violence to incite fear, we went in a slightly different direction.

Click here to find out how we turned the RGA's ridiculous tactic on its head!

Watch the DGA's "Coming This Fall" video!

The future of our country should be driven by the vigor of America's great debate, not seditious flame-throwing rhetoric. Utter nonsense like 'Remember November' might be good for firing up the angry fringe, but it does absolutely nothing to move our country forward.

So please, check out our new video today -- and then forward it to 5 friends!

We need your help to show people that these dangerous antics by the GOP won't work. Show them we will hold them accountable and respond in a way that brings them right back to reality.

Thanks for all you've done, and all you continue to do, for the Democratic Governors Association.

-Nathan


Nathan Daschle
Executive Director
Democratic Governors Association

P.S. Social networks are a great way to spread around videos like this one, so after you view it, be sure to share it with your friends on Facebook and Twitter!


What's the "sick tactics" video that has Nathan all riled up?

Let's take a quick look.



Readers may decide: was Nathan right to label this video "fear-centric marketing?"

I mean, if you're a Democrat Congressman or Senator and you're watching this, you probably do feel a little fear; after all, most of those in Congress have done little else their entire lives but belong to the political class.

Okay, Nathan, you might have a point there.

Is the video "great debate" or "seditious flame-throwing rhetoric?"

("Seditious," by the way, is the new buzzword; sorta like "racist" was last year and "Nazi" was during the Bush administration.

It's supposed that the GOP can be thankful that Nathan didn't call Remember September "a racist piece of seditious Nazi propaganda."

Suggestion for Daschle: if you really want to scare people, try this next time.




by Mondo Frazier
image: DBKP file

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Investing: The Power of the Stock Return Predictor

Originally posted at DBKP: Investing--The New Rules: Harness the Power of The Stock Return Predictor

The Stock Return Predictor is one of the most powerful online tools for investing today. Find out why.




The Stock-Return Predictor tells you the price of stocks at a given time.

You wouldn’t give a thought to buying a car or a movie ticket or a chocolate bar without first knowing the price you were being asked to pay. The same should go with your purchases of stocks. My view (I am biased, to be sure) is that this calculator is the most powerful investor’s tool available on the internet today.

All buying decisions are made through a two-step process. Say that you were planning to buy a car. Your first step would be to determine which model was the right one for you. You might spend a good bit of time researching different possibilities before deciding that Car X is the one for you. But at that point the job is still only half done.







Say that you look up Car X in Consumer Reports and learn that the fair price for the car is $20,000. Then you go to a dealer who offers to sell you one for $18,000. You are probably going to sign the papers quick before he changes his mind. You can confidently make that deal because you know this is the car for you and you know that you are getting a more-than-fair deal.

Now say that the dealer demands $25,000 for the car. You are probably going to walk away. It’s not that the car is not right for you. It’s that the price is too high. When you determined that this car offered a strong value proposition for you, that determination assumed that you would be buying it at a reasonable price. There is no car that does not become a poor choice when priced too high.

So it is with stocks. We explored last week why index funds represent the best choice for the typical middle-class investor. When you buy an index fund, you are buying a share of the productivity of an economy that for 140 years now has generated enough profits to finance a long-term average return of 6.5 percent real. That’s plenty good enough for those of us looking for a no-muss/no-fuss investing approach.

But you cannot realistically expect to see that 6.5 percent return if you pay a price well in excess of fair value.

Say that you pay two times fair value for your index funds (that you buy them at a time when valuation levels are double what they should be). In that event, half of your money is going to buy an asset that will indeed generate a long-term return of something in the neighborhood of 6.5 percent real. But the other half of your money is going to purchase cotton-candy nothingness, stuff that is going to be blown away in the wind as prices work their way back to fair value. Spending half of your money on cotton-candy nothingness is not the way to finance an early retirement or even a reasonably comfortable age-65 retirement. Investors who care about getting value for their money need to do better.

Please plug the number “8” into The Stock-Return Predictor and push the “Calculate” button. That is the P/E10 value (“PE10” is our valuation metric; I’ll explain why it is the best valuation metric in a later column) that applied in 1982, when stocks were priced insanely low. The calculator tells you that the most likely 10-year annualized return starting from that valuation level is nearly 15 percent real. That’s an amazing return. Check with any friends who bought stocks in 1982 and they will confirm for you that the calculator got it right; investors who bought stocks in 1982 really did obtain big rewards for doing so over the next 10 years.

Now enter the number “44” into the Predictor. That’s the P/E10 value that applied in January 2000, when stocks were priced higher than they have ever before in history been priced. The calculator reveals the most likely 10-year annualized return as a negative 1 percent real. Again, checking with friends who bought stocks at those prices will show that the calculator is doing something important. The 2000s have come to be known among U.S. stock investors as “the lost decade.” Stocks were not the best choice for the long run for that 10-year stretch. They were the worst choice (money market accounts did better).

Why? Because stocks were so overpriced that two-thirds of the money that people put into stocks in January 2000 was going not to buy an asset class paying a 6.5 percent real return but to buy cotton-candy nothingness. Putting that much of your money into cotton-candy futures is going to go a long way toward setting back your financial freedom dreams every time.

It’s simple, isn’t it? You pay attention to price when buying everything else you buy. You need to begin paying attention to price when buying stocks too. Regardless of what The Stock-Selling Industry tells you is best. The “experts” in The Stock-Selling Industry are telling you what is best for them. You need to start tuning out their marketing slogans with the aim of doing what is best for you.

Next week’s column will explain where the numbers that pop up in The Stock-Return Predictor come from and how you can be sure that the calculator really works.


Every Monday at DBKP:
* Investing–The New Rules: Get the Odds on Your Side
* Stock Investing: Much of Today’s Understanding is Primitive



by Rob Bennett

images: Passionate Savings

Rob Bennett recently authored a Google Knol arguing that “The Bull Market Caused the Economic Crisis.” His bio is here.


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